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โš  ALERTS
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Basic Reproduction No.
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Rโ‚€ = ฮฒ/ฮณ
Epidemic Peak Day
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From RK4 simulation
Peak Infected
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Total Infected (Final R)
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Herd Immunity Threshold
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1 โˆ’ 1/Rโ‚€
SIR Compartment Trajectories (RK4 vs Euler)
S
I
R
Solver Comparison โ€” I(t): Euler vs RK4
RK4
Euler (dashed)
Observed
๐ŸŒ Multi-Country Case Comparison (Real Data)
Enter countries to compare.
โš–๏ธ Scenario Comparison Engine
S1
ฮฒ = ฮณ =
S2
ฮฒ = ฮณ =
S3
ฮฒ = ฮณ =
Each scenario runs with the global N, Iโ‚€, Days settings. Interventions are configurable in the JSON body.
๐Ÿ’‰ Vaccination Speed Impact โ€” I(t) Comparison

Compares "no vaccine" vs increasing daily rollout speeds using the SEIRDV model.

Total Cases
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+โ€” today
Total Deaths
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+โ€” today
Active Cases
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โ€” critical
Recovered
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+โ€” today
Case Fatality Rate
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deaths / cases
Raw Data Source: disease.sh (mirrors Johns Hopkins) ยท Data as of: โ€” ยท
Last updated: โ€”
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Global Infection Map โ€” Cases per Million
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Country Rankings
# Country Cases Deaths Active Cases/M Today
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๐Ÿ“‰ Effective Reproduction Number R(t) โ€” Real Historical Data
Select a country and click Compute Rt.
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Outbreak Risk Score Dashboard โ€” Top 20 Countries

Composite score 0โ€“100 based on case rate, growth, death rate, active ratio, and critical burden.

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Forecast Settings
Horizon (days) 90
ฮฒ Uncertainty (ฯƒ) 15%
Run a simulation first, then generate forecast from current state.
Epidemic Forecast โ€” I(t) with Confidence Intervals
Median (50th %ile)
50% CI
90% CI
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Growth Metrics
Daily Growth Rate
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Doubling Time
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Effective Rโ‚œ
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๐Ÿ”ฌ Parameter Sensitivity โ€” Rโ‚€ Heatmap (ฮฒ ร— ฮณ Grid)

Rโ‚€ = ฮฒ/ฮณ across a parameter grid. Green = controlled (Rโ‚€ โ‰ค 1) ยท Amber = Rโ‚€ 1โ€“2 ยท Red = Rโ‚€ > 2.

๐ŸŒŠ Multi-Wave Epidemic Builder

Define up to 4 transmission phases (original strain โ†’ variant โ†’ lockdown โ†’ endemic).

Phase 1ฮฒ =Days =Label =
Phase 2ฮฒ =Days =Label =
Phase 3ฮฒ =Days =Label =
Phase 4ฮฒ =Days =Label =
Configure phases and click Simulate Waves.
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Hospital Capacity Settings
Hospitalisation Rate 5.0%
% of I needing hospital
ICU Rate 1.2%
% of I needing ICU
Country (for bed density)
Hospital & ICU Demand vs Capacity
Hospitalised
ICU
Ventilators
Hospital Capacity
ICU Capacity
Bed Surplus / Shortfall (negative = crisis)